[SteezeforMyBimmerMon]

Their electric grid is going to have major issues. They are already asking residents to restrict the times which they charge their vehicles because of the heat. Most households will do find with just 1 gasoline car for distance travel IMHO.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by SteezeforMyBimmerMon

Their electric grid is going to have major issues.

Charging off-peak, when most of it occurs, will not be it.

They were asking businesses to slow/stop production in the heat in Texas when I was there this summer, in addition to turning up the thermostat, not running appliances, not charging a car, in the heat of the day. If there are issues with the grid, electric cars are not it. As the grid has to be upgraded just to take into account growth in population, this will be addressed. Some places will be ahead of it, some will be behind. Some will be about where they should be. Much ado about nothing.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by RM7

Some places will be ahead of it, some will be behind. Some will be about where they should be. Much ado about nothing.

Most will be behind it. Where do you see new generation sources entering the market, and when (time of day) are those sources available?

It takes a very long time to build this infrastructure, and it's very costly. There is also a labor shortage. These facts are making people like me in the generation/transmission industry rich, but we will hit the "wall" of supply and demand soon, sooner than most think. It's already been a problem every summer for the last several years.

charging off-peak at night = mostly carbon sourced electricity. This isn't making ground on emissions, it's just shifting the "ugly" around.

About 1/3 of all household energy consumption goes to transportation, putting that added load on the power grid comes at a huge cost, and represents a huge liability.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

everyone has such grandiose ideas when virtue signaling

[RM7]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Most will be behind it. Where do you see new generation sources entering the market, and when (time of day) are those sources available?

Don't take my word for it, go to The Google, enter "natural gas turbine generator" and then select "news" from the top bar. I see them going in all over the place, they are easily scalable.

charging off-peak at night = mostly carbon sourced electricity. This isn't making ground on emissions, it's just shifting the "ugly" around.

Charging off peak, even with fossil fuels, is still significantly more efficient then burning gas in an ICE engine. That's the point there. And then there's the whole point of it being off peak, as in most of the usage is in the day. Things aren't changing overnight, there still isn't a giant switch that will come on in California that will make every car electric when it's thrown and you are vastly underestimating the draws on power in the daytime. You are also making assumptions that do not apply to every place. Wind blows at night, you might be confusing how still it gets near the ground due to less mixing, which is a function of convective activity. Water still flows at night. And so on. Yes, not every nocturnal source will be renewable in that sense, but please stop with the hyperbole. Whomever you are listening to, they sure got you scared.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Most will be behind it. Where do you see new generation sources entering the market, and when (time of day) are those sources available?

It takes a very long time to build this infrastructure, and it's very costly. There is also a labor shortage. These facts are making people like me in the generation/transmission industry rich, but we will hit the "wall" of supply and demand soon, sooner than most think. It's already been a problem every summer for the last several years.

charging off-peak at night = mostly carbon sourced electricity. This isn't making ground on emissions, it's just shifting the "ugly" around.

About 1/3 of all household energy consumption goes to transportation, putting that added load on the power grid comes at a huge cost, and represents a huge liability.

So, let's say this doomsday scenario comes to pass. What do you think will happen when the widespread rolling blackouts start? I'm not asking rhetorically or trying to be sarcastic, I am genuinely curious as to what you think will happen when push comes to shove.

The way I look at it, is we have already started down the path of the next phase in the modernization of personal transport. It's not going to happen overnight. I doubt it's going to happen as scheduled. So much fear in this thread. Even California isn't actually going to cripple itself if it's not ready. There are statewide elections that have to be won.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by RM7

Don't take my word for it, go to The Google, enter "natural gas turbine generator" and then select "news" from the top bar. I see them going in all over the place, they are easily scalable.



Charging off peak, even with fossil fuels, is still significantly more efficient then burning gas in an ICE engine. That's the point there. And then there's the whole point of it being off peak, as in most of the usage is in the day. Things aren't changing overnight, there still isn't a giant switch that will come on in California that will make every car electric when it's thrown and you are vastly underestimating the draws on power in the daytime. .

So the answer is more carbon generation to feed these EV's?

There are numerous ICE's that beat the average efficiency of carbon-electric based EV's, and have been on the market for decades.

I took your advice on the google search, my 2nds link led to this article :

https://www.lewistownsentinel.com/ne...d-power-plant/

RENOVO — Plans to build a Marcellus Shale natural gas-fired power plant here will proceed despite an Environmental Hearing Board ruling saying state-approved emission limits for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are too high.

Some eight years in the making, Renovo Energy Center LLC proposes to build a 1,000-megawatt power plant designed to provide electricity to thousands of customers in Pennsylvania and New York.

8 years of planning, and it still hasn't been built yet, and now it may not even pass air pollution regulations. This clearly isn't the best answer.

Also, in summer peak demand is in the late evening when solar is offline in California and other "hot" states. Charging a 100KW battery while running your AC while the sun is down isn't "going green".

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chris719

So, let's say this doomsday scenario comes to pass. What do you think will happen when the widespread rolling blackouts start? I'm not asking rhetorically or trying to be sarcastic, I am genuinely curious as to what you think will happen when push comes to shove.

.

I think some of these grand plans to push load to the grid will be quietly pulled back and delayed, but not before a lot of chaos ensues in the demand side of the system. chaos = waste.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by RM7

You are also making assumptions that do not apply to every place. Wind blows at night, you might be confusing how still it gets near the ground due to less mixing, which is a function of convective activity. Water still flows at night. And so on. Yes, not every nocturnal source will be renewable in that sense, but please stop with the hyperbole. Whomever you are listening to, they sure got you scared.

take a look at the renewables availability in California, this is real time and you can also look back in time.

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

I'm not making assumptions, I'm looking at data. Last night renewables was only ~10% of the supply. And this is in the renewables meca of the country with all their solar and wind. Many places are much worse off for renewable sources. The other states that are following their lead, what is their night time renewables profile going to look like?

[XutvJet]

Everything I've read is that there is plenty of total electricity "capacity" in the grid currently to support all households changing over to EVs today. HOWEVER, the grid does not have consistent capacity to charge the EVs at all points during the day, just like we're seeing with the over-taxed grids in CA and TX during summer peak hours.

Where will people that live in places without dedicated parking charge their cars? Are city streets going to be littered with charging stations? I don't see that happening given the massive amount of infrastruture and no clear line to who operates and maintains those systems. Also, I imagine many people would not like the look and fire professionals wouldn't like the fire risk of having charging stations in the direct line of nearby cars flying by at 30mph+. Then there's the whole thing of people yanking charge cables out of cars, either to simply screw with someone or an aggressive move to charge their own car.

The ability to fully charge a car in 5 minutes is about 15-20 years away so say the EV battery experts. You would need the charge timing number to be in that range in order to create the EV station equivalent of a gas station.

There is SO MUCH that needs to happen before a major switch to EVs is viable. For the next 10+ years, EVs will still remain a luxury type purchase that is only really available to those in the upper middleclass and beyond households.

There is absolutely no way CA will actually follow through with law as written. It's simply not possible by 2035. I think they did this in hopes of pushing more people and industry towards EVs.

[GoneIn4Secs]

Originally Posted by chris719

So, let's say this doomsday scenario comes to pass. What do you think will happen when the widespread rolling blackouts start? I'm not asking rhetorically or trying to be sarcastic, I am genuinely curious as to what you think will happen when push comes to shove.

The way I look at it, is we have already started down the path of the next phase in the modernization of personal transport. It's not going to happen overnight. I doubt it's going to happen as scheduled. So much fear in this thread. Even California isn't actually going to cripple itself if it's not ready. There are statewide elections that have to be won.

"Blackouts Imminent" - 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks 'Demand Response Event' | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ca...d-pushed-brink


your rolling blackouts have begun, maybe you can tell us what's happening

[chris719]

Originally Posted by GoneIn4Secs

"Blackouts Imminent" - 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks 'Demand Response Event' | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ca...d-pushed-brink


your rolling blackouts have begun, maybe you can tell us what's happening

Uh, nothing, because it's a peak demand spike. Not that it matters for this since it's carried everywhere, but of all sources you link ZeroHedge?? A good reputable source, lol.

[gonzo]

"I'm going to drive around California and unplug electric cars and do my part for the power grid today"


Cluster.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chris719

Uh, nothing, because it's a peak demand spike. Not that it matters for this since it's carried everywhere, but of all sources you link ZeroHedge?? A good reputable source, lol.

Peak demand spikes are what cause things like the 2021 Texas power crisis.

When a customer experiences a peak demand type event due to external forces beyond their control, typically the other generation sources and customers are experiencing the same demand forces. IE if a state is in a heat wave, their neighbor states (their "plan B sources" with excess power) are likely in a similar situation, and have little surplus to offer.

Where I live, peak demand is in winter. It is the same simple truth though.

These liabilities are non-linear, they sneak up on you, and can cascade catastrophically.

[StradaRedlands]

Really, getting people out of cars of any sort is the better fix. I know it'll make me sound like a cappuccino drinking, sushi eating, commie liberal, but ride a damn bike for errands <2 miles. It's not that complicated. But if everyone on the planet needs their own damn car to go buy some chips a mile away, no matter what the energy source, we're hosed.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by StradaRedlands

Really, getting people out of cars of any sort is the better fix. I know it'll make me sound like a cappuccino drinking, sushi eating, commie liberal, but ride a damn bike for errands <2 miles. It's not that complicated. But if everyone on the planet needs their own damn car to go buy some chips a mile away, no matter what the energy source, we're hosed.

indeed

"Work from home" needs to take on a new meaning. We made it work for Covid, why not make it work for the environment?

[StradaRedlands]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

indeed

"Work from home" needs to take on a new meaning. We made it work for Covid, why not make it work for the environment?

Yes! That as well! I loved WFH and got so much more done.
90% of my job could be WFH, and go in once a week.
Nine years to retirement... Dog willing.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by StradaRedlands

Really, getting people out of cars of any sort is the better fix. I know it'll make me sound like a cappuccino drinking, sushi eating, commie liberal, but ride a damn bike for errands <2 miles. It's not that complicated. But if everyone on the planet needs their own damn car to go buy some chips a mile away, no matter what the energy source, we're hosed.

I don't live within 2miles of any errand.

[StradaRedlands]

Originally Posted by M3WC

I don't live within 2miles of any errand.

Then this doesn't apply to you!

And it doesn't apply to me for going to work (15 miles one way), but when I want to go to the movies, buy some beer, drop my car off at the indy garage, get groceries, go to my kid's school, see a friend, go to Target, I can leave my car parked and try to!

[Quadruple VANOS]

Originally Posted by StradaRedlands

Really, getting people out of cars of any sort is the better fix. …ride a damn bike for errands <2 miles. It's not that complicated.

No thanks. Riding a bike is an inefficient use of time; and time is a much more finite and valuable resource for me to save. It's really that simple.

[stevenopoly]

Originally Posted by chris719

Uh, nothing, because it's a peak demand spike. Not that it matters for this since it's carried everywhere, but of all sources you link ZeroHedge?? A good reputable source, lol.

Let's say if the majority of people do get electric cars, wouldn't "peak demand spike" be the majority of the time?

[chris719]

Originally Posted by stevenopoly

Let's say if the majority of people do get electric cars, wouldn't "peak demand spike" be the majority of the time?

In theory, proponents claim that charging will occur almost all off-peak, but there are some problems with that as mentioned earlier in the thread.

The difference is, instead of it being a temporary event, it'll be a gradual change in base demand over the next 13 years.

It may cause issues, but it'll have to be dealt with. It's easier to get motivation and money when it's not a "temporary" issue.