[ASAP]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

And this is why the inflation issue has been hitting the lower and middle classes hardest: Airfare reductions benefit higher earners, whereas gasoline and natural gas and meat+pultry+fish+eggs hit the lower/middle much much harder.

I would say that an intelligent person would need to look at the costs that affect most people the most-

1. Housing
2. Food
3. Energy
4. Transport
5. Health Care Costs

I think everything beyond that is trash reporting that could be considered discretionary spend at best... the above sectors specifically 1,2 and 3 are still getting hammered... and combine that with a near 8% interest rate... RIP middle class and lower... what we have we done to this country?

[c1pher]

So other than a couple individual stocks I own for my own risk taking, I think my optimal blend is
15% MGK
45% VOO
40% VYM
I also hold cash in VFMXX which is earning ~5.25%

You can adjust these based on your risk taking but I feel perform very well for their focus and have low expense so you keep more of what you earn.

I have been hesitant to share my strategy simply because I don’t want people complaining but I’ve had no problem beating the SP500 average.

[c1pher]

Other thing I will add is you can go crazy trying to keep things in balance, so once you set things, let them go for at least a year so you avoid higher taxes, then re balance if you wish. You will find you will keep moving MGK mostly into VYM to shore things up.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by c1pher

So other than a couple individual stocks I own for my own risk taking, I think my optimal blend is
15% MGK
45% VOO
40% VYM
I also hold cash in VFMXX which is earning ~5.25%

Given the increase in rates, very real credit tightening and the earnings recession, aren't you taking a lot of risk holding high yield right now? Assuming you're using VMY primarily for wealth preservation, and are subject to taxes on that, something like VTEB might be good. Decent return (2.78% ytd), virtually no risk of default, and tax free.

[c1pher]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Given the increase in rates, very real credit tightening and the earnings recession, aren't you taking a lot of risk holding high yield right now? Assuming you're using VMY primarily for wealth preservation, and are subject to taxes on that, something like VTEB might be good. Decent return (2.78% ytd), virtually no risk of default, and tax free.

I like none of these are indexed and not managed so it takes biases out of the mix. YMMV, invest in what works for you. I think you're better moving from VTEB to VMFXX even if it is taxable. You can adjust the percentage mix to however you see fit. I don't really see the point in bonds much anymore since a lot of those funds are no longer really generating money unless you go with risky junk bonds....about on par with a regular savings account that you at least have FDIC insurance for, JMO, but I'm not Warren Buffett.

[chassis]

Crickets on this thread.

Treasury yields are creeping up. The market is taking notice.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by chassis

Crickets on this thread.

Treasury yields are creeping up. The market is taking notice.

Not to mention sticky core CPI and energy prices that are re-accelerating.

Sticky inflation be sticky....

[ASAP]

today's economy i.e. no one has any idea what's going on... if only we didn't f up the last 10 years but especially the last 4

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

today's economy i.e. no one has any idea what's going on... if only we didn't f up the last 10 years but especially the last 4

The economy is in great shape...

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

market is good and bad. can't time it. long term always wins, not this incessant day trading

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

The economy is in great shape...

Yes, it's an amazing shape... the only thing holding this house of cards together is a consumer who appears to be willing to go into debt at all costs to continue spending lol.

CPI is roaring back, jobs numbers that are revised by 50% after a month, auto repos are roaring up and household debt is at an all time high...

This only goes two ways... spending slows and we slip into full blown recession... or the govt continues to paper over the problem when the money printer is turned back on by the end of the year full blast... resulting in well even further inflation. Our current scenario is absolutely decimating people at the middle income and below.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Yes, it's an amazing shape... the only thing holding this house of cards together is a consumer who appears to be willing to go into debt at all costs to continue spending lol.

CPI is roaring back, jobs numbers that are revised by 50% after a month, auto repos are roaring up and household debt is at an all time high...

This only goes two ways... spending slows and we slip into full blown recession... or the govt continues to paper over the problem when the money printer is turned back on by the end of the year full blast... resulting in well even further inflation. Our current scenario is absolutely decimating people at the middle income and below.

What do you mean the CPI is 'roaring back?' That's not even close to correct. Wages have been stabilizing for awhile and the job growth has been in travel + leisure. Are you just parroting what you see on the news? Energy has nothing to do with the Fed.

The 'consumer' as you put it are all grandfathered in low interest rates for the most part and are immune to what's happening. Just stop with this madness okay?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What do you mean the CPI is 'roaring back?' That's not even close to correct. Wages have been stabilizing for awhile and the job growth has been in travel + leisure. Are you just parroting what you see on the news? Energy has nothing to do with the Fed.

The 'consumer' as you put it are all grandfathered in low interest rates for the most part and are immune to what's happening. Just stop with this madness okay?

The absolute reverse... i see what's going on around me and by talking to people I know and understand how hard it is for many.

Are you saying we didn't just have a job revision?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/jobs...gust-2023.html

Are you also saying wages stabilizing are a good thing lol? I guess if you are a business owner then yea.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/cpi-...july-2023.html

Inflation is still at over 3% which is well above the fed target... but again, there is already talk about revising that to a standard rate lol as opposed to 2%. Prices are up dramatically over 3 years and wage growth didn't keep up...

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

The absolute reverse... i see what's going on around me and by talking to people I know and understand how hard it is for many.

Are you saying we didn't just have a job revision?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/jobs...gust-2023.html

Are you also saying wages stabilizing are a good thing lol? I guess if you are a business owner then yea.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/cpi-...july-2023.html

Inflation is still at over 3% which is well above the fed target... but again, there is already talk about revising that to a standard rate lol as opposed to 2%. Prices are up dramatically over 3 years and wage growth didn't keep up...

Wage stabilizing is a good thing. Wages skyrocketing like they were the past year and a half was driving inflation up.

Shelter is 1/3rd 'core' CPI and is just now being accounted for since it's a lagging number. 3% inflation is fine and the Fed is fine with that.

My guess is rates are cut beginning in March next year

[c1pher]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Wage stabilizing is a good thing. Wages skyrocketing like they were the past year and a half was driving inflation up.

Shelter is 1/3rd 'core' CPI and is just now being accounted for since it's a lagging number. 3% inflation is fine and the Fed is fine with that.

My guess is rates are cut beginning in March next year

I wish my wage was skyrocketing.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

I think people have been deluded to think after a crisis of forced government lockdown there is no recession. Shit is been good so far so why won't it continue. Many people don't own much nowadays, credit is a means to survival. I mean its basic history, this economy will crumble, all the signs are there. The BS metrics of the economy, like EBITA in stocks, are blinding your eyes.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by c1pher

I wish my wage was skyrocketing.

this is some sort of fake news being spread to make people feel good-

I only know of 2 sectors where this happened.

The lower wage earner which doesn't drive the economy - i.e. starbucks workers.

And folks that were already well off and were able to switch jobs lol.

No one else got a raise, where is this coming from lol? Mostly everyone else got pummeled by inflation.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by ASAP

this is some sort of fake news being spread to make people feel good-

I only know of 2 sectors where this happened.

The lower wage earner which doesn't drive the economy - i.e. starbucks workers.

And folks that were already well off and were able to switch jobs lol.

No one else got a raise, where is this coming from lol? Mostly everyone else got pummeled by inflation.

it takes quite a deal of "bandwidth" to truly follow currency through all its valuations in economics. Shit I can't even half way follow the USD its manipulation.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Wage stabilizing is a good thing. Wages skyrocketing like they were the past year and a half was driving inflation up.

Shelter is 1/3rd 'core' CPI and is just now being accounted for since it's a lagging number. 3% inflation is fine and the Fed is fine with that.

My guess is rates are cut beginning in March next year

3% inflation is not fine... thats a revised number again because targets can't be met... just like the definition of recession was revised as were job numbers as were CPI numbers.

If you are ready for your rate cut... you need be ready for further inflation... there is 0 talk of a pivot at this time.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

3% inflation is not fine... thats a revised number again because targets can't be met... just like the definition of recession was revised as were job numbers as were CPI numbers.

If you are ready for your rate cut... you need be ready for further inflation... there is 0 talk of a pivot at this time.

Who says 3% inflation isn't fine? 2% is a made up number.

There is 0 talk of a pivot until there is that talk. I want you to comment on how shelter has been lagging and is now going to be going down exponentially. You missed that in your Core CPI forecast. And stop with energy also which is always volatile

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

That's the AI chart...