BMW 1-Series Forum (F20) 135i - 1Addicts.com > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > General Automotive (non-BMW) Talk + Photos/Videos > Don't be fooled into buying electric car
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      09-22-2021, 01:26 PM   #45
heavyD^2
Colonel
heavyD^2's Avatar
Canada
2795
Rep
2,411
Posts

Drives: X3M Competition
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Not blocked from G80/G82 because I'm an adult

iTrader: (0)

Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
Appreciate 4
540iSUP87.00
jmack409.50
Torgus2737.00
GrussGott15091.50
      09-22-2021, 02:01 PM   #46
Mason Hatcher
Second Lieutenant
United_States
408
Rep
286
Posts

Drives: BMW 230i
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: FW-TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
It's all about views. He doesn't care about the quality of his content.
Appreciate 0
      09-22-2021, 02:34 PM   #47
JamesNoBrakes
Colonel
JamesNoBrakes's Avatar
1610
Rep
2,470
Posts

Drives: Camaro SS 1LE
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Alaska

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
Agree, although I don't have a guess on % share of the market. But we are very far from where infrastructure needs to be for full adoption. Also solid state battery tech is needed for EV to go mainstream. Some say we are a good decade from solid state batteries being ready for automotive application. 2030 is optimistic for sure. For the brands that have stated they will be full EV by 2030, they will be all competing for a still small portion of the vehicle market.
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
__________________
Current: 2018 Camaro SS 1LE, 2022 Kia Stinger. Former: BMW 428i Gran Coupe.
Appreciate 1
540iSUP87.00
      09-22-2021, 02:58 PM   #48
Alfisti
Lieutenant Colonel
2520
Rep
1,953
Posts

Drives: 2013 X3
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Toronto, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
Oh the cars will be ready, that I have no doubt. I just don't think people will be able to afford them and we won't have enoogh public chargers and governments will need to push things back 5 or 10 years.
Appreciate 1
Murf99311151.00
      09-22-2021, 03:03 PM   #49
RobC2
Lieutenant
268
Rep
478
Posts

Drives: different makes and models.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: NC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Leasing is one of the all time great myths, around here anyways. I owned a used X3 5 years old, so had the water pump failure, needed rotors/pads etc and still, even counting depreciation, my monthly cost to own was a SOLID $250 month less than a lease on the same vehicle over 3 years.

I have no issue with people leasing, we are free to make the choice, but this narrative that it is cheaper than repairing a used german car is not true.
My wife's 430i Gran Coupe lease is only $305 a month. That is with a $50k MSRP and only first month DAS. What was the payment on the X3 lease you are using in your example? The key to making a lease work is to get a great deal. It sounds obvious, but leases are not as straightforward as a purchase and as a result, a lot of people overpay.
__________________
2021 Chevrolet Camaro LT1
2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon 4xe
2021 Toyota Tacoma TRD Off-Road
Appreciate 0
      09-22-2021, 03:22 PM   #50
Alfisti
Lieutenant Colonel
2520
Rep
1,953
Posts

Drives: 2013 X3
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Toronto, Canada

iTrader: (0)

We had the X3 with the big engine, i just ran it through the bmw build thingy and only added one option for $3800 (roof etc).

Even the smaller engine is well over $900 a month.

Now, you won't pay that, you will negotiate down but there $300 leases you people down there talk about, not gonna get you a corolla.

Monthly Lease Payment
Monthly Lease Payment: Amount owing for one payment transaction
$1,207
Province
Province: Selected Province.
Ontario
Term
Term: Duration of agreement
48 months
Interest Rate
Interest Rate: Annual percentage rate being charged as interest.
3.99 %
Residual Value
Residual Value: Anticipated value of the vehicle at maturity of agreement.
$30,549
Down Payment
Down Payment: Lump sum amount paid up-front to lower the payment and reduce the amount financed.
$0
Trade-in Value
Trade-in Value: Value of your trade-in vehicle after payment of amounts owing, if any.
$0
Km/Year
Km/Year: Average number of kilometres driven per year in agreement.
16,000 km
Include Freight & PDI in Payment
Include Freight & PDI in Payment: Add freight & PDI into payment to remove amount from the total amount due upon delivery.
Yes
Include Sales Tax in Payment
Include Sales Tax in Payment: Add Sales Tax into payment amount.
Yes
Monthly Payment Sales Tax
$ 139
MSRP
MSRP: Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price.
$66,250
Options
Options: Value of selected vehicle options.
$4,795
Freight and PDI
$2,480
Delivery Credit
Delivery Credit: Amount of delivery credit available to customers on select special offers.
$0
Vehicle Price with Options
Vehicle Price with Options: MSRP, Options and Freight & PDI (as selected).
$73,525
Security Deposit
$1,207
First Scheduled Payment
$1,207
Appreciate 1
M5Rick17304.50
      09-22-2021, 06:55 PM   #51
RobC2
Lieutenant
268
Rep
478
Posts

Drives: different makes and models.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: NC

iTrader: (0)

I took "around here" to mean the BMW forum. I see now that you mean in Canada.
__________________
2021 Chevrolet Camaro LT1
2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon 4xe
2021 Toyota Tacoma TRD Off-Road
Appreciate 0
      09-22-2021, 10:32 PM   #52
hellrotm
Banned
4097
Rep
6,927
Posts

Drives: F80
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: ...Location...Location

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
Not from what I have read. Toyota has been testing them, but they have been running into some hurdles like short life cycle and battery performance in BEV testing. Toyota has recently said solid state batteries will go in hybrids first, where these issues are minimized. Actually read an article a few days ago Ford and BMW will begin solid state pilot production in 2022. Later that year Ford/BMW should get hands on cells to test in automotive applications. Earliest market launch later in the decade. Solid state batteries are coming to BEV's, but years away. I would be very surprised if we see them in the majority of EV's before 2030.

Last edited by hellrotm; 09-22-2021 at 10:49 PM..
Appreciate 2
Murf99311151.00
GrussGott15091.50
      09-23-2021, 05:35 AM   #53
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
9963
Rep
16,436
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Yeah like i said, each to his own but I see comments that a new car, especially leased, is cheaper than an old one due to repairs. It's simply not sans catastrophic engine failure really.
The only way to judge the economics of owning (i.e. using) a car is the cost-per-mile. Cost per-month, cost per-year, is irrelevant. It is the total dollars you paid to buy the car and operate it. The operational costs are fuel, maintenance and repair. The longer you own the car and amortize the purchase price* of the total miles driven is better economically. People who own a car for 2 - 3 years then trade in for a new car pay over $1.00 per mile. People like me who keep their cars for decades and drive them to hundreds of thousands of miles pay less than $0.50 per mile. Measuring the cost per-mile is the only metric that is standard across any car brand, car type, and drivetrain. Most people do not understand how much they pay per mile to drive their car. Most people don't keep the cost records to make an evaluation.

* purchase price is the price of the car when purchased minus the price of the car when you sell it, or get paid by the insurance company if it is totaled.
__________________
A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Appreciate 2
Murf99311151.00
Mavus1239.00
      09-23-2021, 07:42 AM   #54
Alfisti
Lieutenant Colonel
2520
Rep
1,953
Posts

Drives: 2013 X3
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Toronto, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Not really in this instance and for the purposes of this argument. I am doing the same number of miles regardless so miles are irrelevant. So over three years my monthly cost to lease would have been well over $800 and used was around $500.
Appreciate 0
      09-23-2021, 01:57 PM   #55
Matt 335is
Private First Class
United_States
157
Rep
193
Posts

Drives: e92 n54
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Triangle Area, NC

iTrader: (0)

I can't stand Scotty Kilmer. That is all.
Appreciate 1
      09-23-2021, 03:32 PM   #56
SteveinArizona
Brigadier General
United_States
2398
Rep
3,426
Posts

Drives: BMW 530e
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Greater Phoenix

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
Not from what I have read. Toyota has been testing them, but they have been running into some hurdles like short life cycle and battery performance in BEV testing. Toyota has recently said solid state batteries will go in hybrids first, where these issues are minimized. Actually read an article a few days ago Ford and BMW will begin solid state pilot production in 2022. Later that year Ford/BMW should get hands on cells to test in automotive applications. Earliest market launch later in the decade. Solid state batteries are coming to BEV's, but years away. I would be very surprised if we see them in the majority of EV's before 2030.
Toyota is putting the batteries in the hybrids first because they haven't any BEVs to sell nor the experience building them. That is why Toyota has been lobbying so hard against BEVs.
Appreciate 0
      09-24-2021, 12:42 AM   #57
hellrotm
Banned
4097
Rep
6,927
Posts

Drives: F80
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: ...Location...Location

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
Toyota is putting the batteries in the hybrids first because they haven't any BEVs to sell nor the experience building them. That is why Toyota has been lobbying so hard against BEVs.
C&D
Quote:
If you need a refresher on why the solid-state battery is so importantópotentially a game-changer in the EV spaceóyou can read this primer. But there are kinks to iron out. The solid electrolyte material surrounding the battery cells has, in Toyota's testing regime, developed gaps that affect battery performance and service life when utilized in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). That's why, at least initially, Toyota will implement the tech in hybrids (HEVs), where the issue is less of a concern, while simultaneously developing it further for BEVs down the road.
Appreciate 0
      09-24-2021, 08:10 AM   #58
SteveinArizona
Brigadier General
United_States
2398
Rep
3,426
Posts

Drives: BMW 530e
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Greater Phoenix

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
C&D
Toyota doing a rather poor effort at pretending the reason isn't that it can't currently compete in the space.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/31/toyot...ing-fleet-mpg/

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

But it is being criticized by investors so it is pretending:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...at-2021-04-19/
Appreciate 0
      09-24-2021, 09:35 AM   #59
P1
Major General
P1's Avatar
United_States
8187
Rep
9,831
Posts

Drives: Cars
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: United States

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Hatcher View Post
It's all about views. He doesn't care about the quality of his content.
That goes for anyone on social media, YouTube, etc.
Appreciate 1
      09-27-2021, 05:06 AM   #60
patrickmp
Registered
2
Rep
3
Posts

Drives: MINI Cooper
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Lisbon

iTrader: (0)

Lease is often be more expensive, just because there are more intermediaries (banks, dealers, insurances, etc..)...
Appreciate 1
M5Rick17304.50
      09-27-2021, 06:10 AM   #61
M5Rick
Major General
M5Rick's Avatar
United Kingdom
17305
Rep
9,176
Posts

Drives: M5 F10 Gunmetal
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Southern England

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
He's a fast talker alright and you have to keep up with him as he squeezes his content into a time frame,I find he offers good advice for many things a lot of us take for granted.
Appreciate 1
      10-04-2021, 03:55 AM   #62
///d
Private First Class
///d's Avatar
263
Rep
171
Posts

Drives: F15 35d M Sport
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Minne-snow-ta

iTrader: (0)

To get back on track with EV, I posted this to my fb wall not long ago. Not sure if I figured everything correctly...

I was just reading that Europe is pushing for all new vehicles to be EV (electric vehicles) by 2035, and how "on-track" Euro manufactures are currently to meet that deadline. I've always been on the fence for EV, I love me some horsepower, but EV has its advantages and can create amazing low end torque. So I decided to start doing some reading about EV sales and lithium mining. Now Iím no expert, and my math may be off, but here is what I found:

Current global new vehicle sales hover around 70 million each year. 2020 saw about 64 million sales, which is lower than usual due to the pandemic. About 4% of sales in 2020 were EV with sales at around 3 million. It is estimated that by 2030, EV sales will make up around 31% of all new vehicle sales globally. If we keep all new vehicle sales at 70 million, that means 21,700,000 new EV sales in 2030. That's in increase of just over 2 million EV sales per year for the next 9-10 years.

In 2020, lithium mines produced about 82,000 metric tons of lithium, roughly 30,000 tons of that went to EV batteries. Tesla, for example, uses about 10 kilograms of lithium per vehicle. If we use that number across the board for all EV batteries, that means by year 2030 we will require around 217,000 metric tons of lithium for just EV sales. That's an increase of 13,500 tons per year just for vehicles. If we add 50,000 tons as an estimate for other devices (which was the difference in 2020), that puts us at 267,000 metric tons of lithium to mine in 2030. An increase of 18,500 tons per year. In 2015 the US estimated the world has about 365 years' worth of lithium reserve using 2015 rate of 37,000 metric tons per year. We are now at 82,000 tons in 2020-21. We have already doubled our lithium mining in just 5 years. If estimates are correct for 2030, we will reduce our lithium reserves to 50 years supply, but that's only at 31% of vehicle sales being EV. The goal is 100% EV sales eventually, and if it continues to rise at the rate it is expected to, we will deplete out lithium supply in less than 30 years.

ďBut we can recycle lithium batteriesĒ. Yes, we can, but most countries only see about 2-3% of those batteries actually get recycled. The US and Europe sees about 5% get recycled. Batteries are recycled by melting them down and stripping the precious metals away from everything else, which requires a lot of heat (energy) and releases vapors and gases, and right now recycling costs more than mining for new lithium so itís not a ďpriorityĒ of battery manufactures because it isnít cost effective.

Lithium mines are not exactly environmentally friendly either, and the bi-product of lithium mining is believed to cause environmental damage to the surrounding area, as farmers in some countries have seen significant crop damage near lithium mines, but these are countries that donít care and canít be bothered to do tests and studies to see if the mining is indeed causing these damages.

So basically, our solution to cutting emissions and the need to drill for oil before we run out of oil is already on an accelerated track to becoming another depleted resource within our lifetime, and itís potentially bad for the environment in other ways. But hey, Greta will be happy. I did find that they are developing new types of batteries that are supposed to be overall better for the environment, but they havenít came up with anything solid yet.
Appreciate 1
      10-04-2021, 10:31 AM   #63
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
9963
Rep
16,436
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ///d View Post
To get back on track with EV, I posted this to my fb wall not long ago. Not sure if I figured everything correctly...

I was just reading that Europe is pushing for all new vehicles to be EV (electric vehicles) by 2035, and how "on-track" Euro manufactures are currently to meet that deadline. I've always been on the fence for EV, I love me some horsepower, but EV has its advantages and can create amazing low end torque. So I decided to start doing some reading about EV sales and lithium mining. Now Iím no expert, and my math may be off, but here is what I found:

Current global new vehicle sales hover around 70 million each year. 2020 saw about 64 million sales, which is lower than usual due to the pandemic. About 4% of sales in 2020 were EV with sales at around 3 million. It is estimated that by 2030, EV sales will make up around 31% of all new vehicle sales globally. If we keep all new vehicle sales at 70 million, that means 21,700,000 new EV sales in 2030. That's in increase of just over 2 million EV sales per year for the next 9-10 years.

In 2020, lithium mines produced about 82,000 metric tons of lithium, roughly 30,000 tons of that went to EV batteries. Tesla, for example, uses about 10 kilograms of lithium per vehicle. If we use that number across the board for all EV batteries, that means by year 2030 we will require around 217,000 metric tons of lithium for just EV sales. That's an increase of 13,500 tons per year just for vehicles. If we add 50,000 tons as an estimate for other devices (which was the difference in 2020), that puts us at 267,000 metric tons of lithium to mine in 2030. An increase of 18,500 tons per year. In 2015 the US estimated the world has about 365 years' worth of lithium reserve using 2015 rate of 37,000 metric tons per year. We are now at 82,000 tons in 2020-21. We have already doubled our lithium mining in just 5 years. If estimates are correct for 2030, we will reduce our lithium reserves to 50 years supply, but that's only at 31% of vehicle sales being EV. The goal is 100% EV sales eventually, and if it continues to rise at the rate it is expected to, we will deplete out lithium supply in less than 30 years.

ďBut we can recycle lithium batteriesĒ. Yes, we can, but most countries only see about 2-3% of those batteries actually get recycled. The US and Europe sees about 5% get recycled. Batteries are recycled by melting them down and stripping the precious metals away from everything else, which requires a lot of heat (energy) and releases vapors and gases, and right now recycling costs more than mining for new lithium so itís not a ďpriorityĒ of battery manufactures because it isnít cost effective.

Lithium mines are not exactly environmentally friendly either, and the bi-product of lithium mining is believed to cause environmental damage to the surrounding area, as farmers in some countries have seen significant crop damage near lithium mines, but these are countries that donít care and canít be bothered to do tests and studies to see if the mining is indeed causing these damages.

So basically, our solution to cutting emissions and the need to drill for oil before we run out of oil is already on an accelerated track to becoming another depleted resource within our lifetime, and itís potentially bad for the environment in other ways. But hey, Greta will be happy. I did find that they are developing new types of batteries that are supposed to be overall better for the environment, but they havenít came up with anything solid yet.

Lithium is not the end-state of EV battery development.
Appreciate 0
      10-04-2021, 10:49 AM   #64
heavyD^2
Colonel
heavyD^2's Avatar
Canada
2795
Rep
2,411
Posts

Drives: X3M Competition
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Not blocked from G80/G82 because I'm an adult

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
Toyota doing a rather poor effort at pretending the reason isn't that it can't currently compete in the space.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/31/toyot...ing-fleet-mpg/

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

But it is being criticized by investors so it is pretending:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...at-2021-04-19/
Years of carryover drivetrains have caught up to Toyota. Easy to profit and stay reliable when you keep recycling drivetrains designed decades ago.
Appreciate 1
Sedoy386.00
      10-04-2021, 11:00 AM   #65
///M Power-Belgium
Lieutenant General
///M Power-Belgium's Avatar
Belgium
32651
Rep
17,232
Posts

Drives: ///M3-E92-DCT Silverstone II
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Belgium

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by M5Rick View Post
To 3:36.
For the green boys ....
Attached Images
 
__________________
BPM DEV-Tune & DCT Software-Tune & Servotronic & coding ///Alpine HID Angeleyes ///Oem.exhaust mod.
Appreciate 2
DrFerry1110.50
M5Rick17304.50
      10-05-2021, 12:27 AM   #66
///d
Private First Class
///d's Avatar
263
Rep
171
Posts

Drives: F15 35d M Sport
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Minne-snow-ta

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Lithium is not the end-state of EV battery development.
No its not, but as of July when I wrote this there wasn't anything else out there ready for production to replace Li for vehicles. There are things in development, so then the question is how easy will it be to use any new battery tech with EV? Will manufactures be able to easily make the switch, or will they have to redesign everything?
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:40 PM.




1addicts
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST