Quote:
Originally Posted by Viffermike
Seba works for rethinkX, an 'independent' think tank that focuses on alternative energy futures -- ergo, it's not 'independent'. It very much has a social and political agenda behind it.
Here's a blog piece that breaks down rethinkX's prediction that personal vehicle usage will dwindle to 44 million by 2030, which is not likely. (It will probably dwindle, but not to this scale.) This article links to another rethinkX analysis regarding oil consumption. (Note: The blog is written by an investor, which helps regarding an objective analysis. Dude's trying to figure out where to put his money, you know?)
Here's a Business Wire PR release on rethinkX's findings regarding the future of electric and autonomous vehicles. It's far, far, far too aggressive and doesn't consider many of the points I (and others) have made regarding the roadblocks to those vehicles' adoption: insurance, liability, consumer confidence, socioeconomic accessibility, lack of utility for rural/commercial use, etc.
Will such vehicles replace ICE and self-operated cars in urban areas in 12 years? Yes, to an extent -- but not to rethinkX's wishful extent. The organization exists to push that change forward by exaggerating the (to use its own tag word) 'disruption' to news-triggering levels -- and, throughout modern history, many similar organizations have existed to push change forward similarly, but almost all have been far off their own established mark once time frames have played out.
Post this again when presentations like this don't occur in techie hotbeds like Boulder or Silicon Valley. (Birds of a feather ... ) Then we'll talk. |
Thanks - I work in the electric utility industry and while we watch cost curves and technologies closely, we do tend to have our own blinders sometimes. I enjoy a variety of perspectives, but I always come back to the math!
In our industry I have several concerns about the predictions made here, at the same time I recognize that some change is definitely coming. The business challenge is to manage that change such that reliability remains high (or improves) but cost is kept as low as possible. It is very difficult to invest today in deploying a technology on a steeply declining cost curve, because tomorrow I will have a competitive disadvantage as a result!