Quote:
Originally Posted by saifmassoud
This is not autonomous driving, in fact, this is silly. Lets look at facts and projections.
At the moment, we have intelligent "autonomous" driver assistance features at level-2 autonomy. an example would be BMW's Driver Assistance Package, where keep lane-assist, braking and steering is handled by the car in limited situations: clearly marked lanes on the freeway/highway with good weather. And even so, these features are active for few minutes at best, before driver intervention is required.
We are FAR AWAY from truly fully autonomous transportation. Let's look at some realistic timelines:
Mid-2020's some car manufacturers (probably Tesla at first) will offer FULLY AUTONOMOUS driving on Freeways/Highways WITHOUT ANY human intervention at any time and in ANY WEATHER SITUATION. Tesla can do this now but not for all times and not in all weather situations. BMW & Mercedes Benz should reach this level of Autonomy as well (Level 3) by mid-2020's.
By the late 2020's / early 2030's the above will be replicated in NON-Highway-Freeway driving: in city streets, highway exits, suburbs, etc., which is very challenging, therefore, some limited driver intervention might be required.
By the mid 2030's, at this point, we should have FULLY Autonomous transportation. Whether it a ride sharing vehicle or a personal vehicle, the vehicle will be able to pick you up and deliver you to your destination WITHOUT any driver intervention, at all times, at all weather conditions, and in all situations. This is still 1.5 Decades away. So let's be realistic here. So for the time being, lets enjoy the concept of driving.
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I agree with much of what you are saying. Your time frames are conjecture, but reasonable, except for the legal stuff and insurance stuff. What are the laws, the liabilities, the insurance rules when autonomous vehicles get into a crash of some sort? That has not been sorted out. Until it is, I think the car companies may be leery of producing fully autonomous vehicles, even though they have the technology to do it.
I think there will be a long "messy middle" where you will have both autonomous vehicles and human driven vehicles on the road at the same time, which will cause accidents. Eventually no one will drive cars, which will be safer. I suppose that few will actually own an autonomous car, they will simply use a service that picks them up and takes them to their destination.