Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN
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Important JP Morgan update:
Holy moly is their "analysis" totally fucked - a few summary details:
(1.) Their target is only based on 2 years of revenue, i.e., 2022 uhhhh isn't investing (vs trading) supposed to have a longer window than that? You know, cause TSLA will be earning revenue
AFTER 2022? So maybe that future revenue should be calc'd into the valuation?
(2.) They assume 1M vehicles - TSLA is already at 800k globally and Berlin is est at 500k - even if capacity at Shanghai doesn't grow (it will) this is massively conservative (or ridiculous might be the more neutral term)
(3.) JPM claims TSLAs regulatory credit revenue will fall because ... governments will ban ICE vehicles! That's right, JPM says TSLA is too high because as the leading BEV brand and sales leader, when govs ban ICE, TSLA will lose that regulatory credit revenue and ... that ban wouldn't increase their auto sales I guess?
Fun Quote:
"We concede it is possible the rise in shares could be grounded in an analysis of the fundamentals other than those reflected by consensus estimates through 2024 ... After all, are Toyota, VW, GM, Honda, BMW, and Mercedes, et. al., simply going to sit back and watch this happen?"
Translation:
Some investors believe Tesla will exist after 2024 and value them as such, but we don't because the Bigs will certainly have killed TSLA's BEV business before that .... won't they? I mean they haven't yet, but they're gonna ... right? RIGHT??
This JP Morgan recommendation almost climbs to the level of irresponsible - unless you read through it all you don't realize how stupid it is ... which brings up another question: how short is JPM TSLA? Or are they defending Chase? Something else is at play here, because JPM can't be this stupid and irresponsible ....
Side note: invest in index funds.
-3% in 2019-2020! (S&P index is up 17% over that time)