Quote:
Originally Posted by _X
Curious to know the thoughts of the EV folks here. Do you all think the EV car market will be viable beyond 10-15 years? I ask because at CES last year there were a lot of drone companies and several that could already accommodate passengers. As we move towards automation within smart cities, flight paths for drones are much easier than current infrastructure.
|
Electric civil aviation is out there (eviation, quantum, even Airbus), but battery densities aren't yet at a cost (below ICE) or energy density (>400wh) to make it a thing - probably 5 years off.
Electric vehicles will continue to get cheaper and more advanced until an inflection point in about 3 years where ICE vehicle TCO will no longer make sense
for new cars. At this point, xEV new car sales will start to clearly j-curve and any legacy auto makers without a path will get eaten or die.
Interesting side note:
TSLA clearly has the capital to buy any (or most) of the legacy ICE auto makers so why don't they? Because why take on legacy assembly plants that need to be refitted, increasingly valueless patents for legacy technology, legacy labor contracts, etc that are all deadweight? There is simply no reason for TSLA (or any native xEV manufacturer) to buy a legacy ICE "Big" - which is also how and why we know most of the ICE Bigs will get eaten or die. E.g., VAG looks increasingly vulnerable (
clearly VAG's starting to panic, i.e, "Mission T", catch up to Tesla) and will likely get broken up - you could see TSLA and Porsche EVs forming a new unit ...
Anyway, America will continue to be the xEV technology leader, but the adoption laggard; while global xEV sales will J-curve, US adoption will be slower with xEV dead zones in most of rural America > 100 miles from an interstate freeway. Farming will likely move all electric though due to energy deregulation and V2G technology which will enable farms to drastically cut costs as well as create a new revenue source.