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      03-23-2012, 04:11 PM   #793
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I just picked up some TVIX aftermarket at 18.47 hopefully didnt pay to much
Well....
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      03-23-2012, 04:38 PM   #794
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Well....
LOL i sold this at over $20.34
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      03-28-2012, 01:22 PM   #795
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Morning Bulls!

Insider Selling

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The ratio of insider selling to insider buying is even more pronounced on a value basis, hitting its highest level in a year recently, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Taking the total market into account, insiders sold $44.77 worth of stock for every dollar they bought in February. That's the highest insider sell-to-buy ratio since February 2011, when it hit $44.53 to $1.
That is all.

P.S. VIX was a good play this week. 40% in 2 days

What's everyone else to these days? Thread has been slow and no replies.
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      03-28-2012, 07:48 PM   #796
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debating what I want to do with Starbucks and the two shares of Apple I bought in the 400's lol! Hey, I'm only a college student.
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      03-28-2012, 10:33 PM   #797
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Mostly been playing with the banking sector since the stress teat release
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      03-29-2012, 03:52 AM   #798
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Standing by to see whether or not a top has just formed. Pointed out a couple days ago of a blow-off top formation. We will know soon if 1414 is the top for spx.
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      04-03-2012, 02:38 AM   #799
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First day of second quarter: Spot VIX 15.64.

But:

15,000 VIX June 42.50 call options were purchased. VIX would need to increase 155% by June to collect on this bet.

As well,

30,000 VIX June 55 call options were purchased, too. VIX would need to increase 251% by June to collect any money on this bet.

It seems reasonable to see the June 42.50 calls, as we saw a peak of 44 VIX last October in a 22% decline. What's a bit out-of-place is seeing a large purchase of June 55 calls, since we haven't seen 55 since 2008 (-56% decline total, VIX 75-80). As a large purchaser looking to hedge against a drop, VIX 30 calls would be much more reasonable to purchase if only looking to hedge against a minor correction. Hedging against VIX 55 by June is confusing, as I'm not sure how anyone could make money off this large gamble.

Do remember that June is when Operation twist is finished, and 010' and 011' we saw double-digit declines after QE ended. This year, with it being an election year, large monetary easing is going to be highly politically taboo (should Bernanke take that into consideration). If politics doesn't deter Bernanke, then perhaps inflation and gas prices will, seeing as how another QE injection will take gas prices through the roof and bring the world into huge economic slowdown (similar to gas prices and the consequences in 2008). LTRO injection of $500 billion new liquidity Dec 19th saw gas roar 40-50% higher. Talks of a $1 trillion QE 3 would take gas to unprecendented levels as all of that liquidity will end up in equities and commodities (and not the economy, Money velocity is decelerating).

But Benny Ben may be tied-up like ECB Draghi with inflation, as the 2.6% inflation in Eurozone currently is holding back the ECB from printing anymore. They have a strict 2% mandate. If anything, they'll be taking money out of that system before they inject more. Germany won't all for inflation. If Ben injects more QE now, he will find himself in the same position as Draghi. It's funny because now QE has run into a wall, and introducing QE3 has large downside risk as well. This is what happens when you continue pumping liquidity, negative consequences begin emerging. I suspect this is why Ben keeps teasing the markets of more QE, instead of initiating more QE.

If this plays into my model well, no QE 3, this year would play into a decline larger than what we saw in 2010 and 2011. Letting the equities and commodity markets cool-off after a large decline would significantly lower gas prices, give a boost to the economy, and then allow ample room for QE to bring us back up, as well as not being politically interfering this year. It would also play into this baby-bull coming to an end, as it's had a 37 month run-up now from 2009 lows. And it is consistent to see mini-bull runs in Secular Bear markets die-off after 33 months. We're a bit overdue. And sitting pretty above 13,000 DOW and 1400 SPX while VIX is at 5-year lows signals NO ONE is hedging at the top.

Food for thought. And comment guys, you're all being so quiet these days

P.S. You all know the alternate scenario for if QE3 does happen, so I won't bother writing it. But just keep in mind that QE3 this time is not going to be as beneficial as previous QE's if it is released.
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      04-04-2012, 12:40 AM   #800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
First day of second quarter: Spot VIX 15.64.

But:

15,000 VIX June 42.50 call options were purchased. VIX would need to increase 155% by June to collect on this bet.

As well,

30,000 VIX June 55 call options were purchased, too. VIX would need to increase 251% by June to collect any money on this bet.

It seems reasonable to see the June 42.50 calls, as we saw a peak of 44 VIX last October in a 22% decline. What's a bit out-of-place is seeing a large purchase of June 55 calls, since we haven't seen 55 since 2008 (-56% decline total, VIX 75-80). As a large purchaser looking to hedge against a drop, VIX 30 calls would be much more reasonable to purchase if only looking to hedge against a minor correction. Hedging against VIX 55 by June is confusing, as I'm not sure how anyone could make money off this large gamble.

Do remember that June is when Operation twist is finished, and 010' and 011' we saw double-digit declines after QE ended. This year, with it being an election year, large monetary easing is going to be highly politically taboo (should Bernanke take that into consideration). If politics doesn't deter Bernanke, then perhaps inflation and gas prices will, seeing as how another QE injection will take gas prices through the roof and bring the world into huge economic slowdown (similar to gas prices and the consequences in 2008). LTRO injection of $500 billion new liquidity Dec 19th saw gas roar 40-50% higher. Talks of a $1 trillion QE 3 would take gas to unprecendented levels as all of that liquidity will end up in equities and commodities (and not the economy, Money velocity is decelerating).

But Benny Ben may be tied-up like ECB Draghi with inflation, as the 2.6% inflation in Eurozone currently is holding back the ECB from printing anymore. They have a strict 2% mandate. If anything, they'll be taking money out of that system before they inject more. Germany won't all for inflation. If Ben injects more QE now, he will find himself in the same position as Draghi. It's funny because now QE has run into a wall, and introducing QE3 has large downside risk as well. This is what happens when you continue pumping liquidity, negative consequences begin emerging. I suspect this is why Ben keeps teasing the markets of more QE, instead of initiating more QE.

If this plays into my model well, no QE 3, this year would play into a decline larger than what we saw in 2010 and 2011. Letting the equities and commodity markets cool-off after a large decline would significantly lower gas prices, give a boost to the economy, and then allow ample room for QE to bring us back up, as well as not being politically interfering this year. It would also play into this baby-bull coming to an end, as it's had a 37 month run-up now from 2009 lows. And it is consistent to see mini-bull runs in Secular Bear markets die-off after 33 months. We're a bit overdue. And sitting pretty above 13,000 DOW and 1400 SPX while VIX is at 5-year lows signals NO ONE is hedging at the top.

Food for thought. And comment guys, you're all being so quiet these days

P.S. You all know the alternate scenario for if QE3 does happen, so I won't bother writing it. But just keep in mind that QE3 this time is not going to be as beneficial as previous QE's if it is released.
Fun facts about gas prices:
every 10 cent rise in gas prices = 12 billion out of consumer spending
every $10 rise in price of crude oil = -.25% effect on US GDP.

As you stated there are many factors that make me also find it hard to believe that QE3 is going to happen this year; well unless there is a severe hit to the market. The markets are doing fine now, no need for QE yet were close to all time highs! It would be a definite waste in my opinion as well as lead to a rise in the price of pretty much everything (inflation) as you said.

Also, QE is pretty much our last defense from a catastrophe since interest rates are already scraping rock bottom, cant exactly go any lower. Meaning if something, such as the drop in 08, were to happen again our only way to stop it would be to dump money in the economy using QE, which would most likely lead to hyper inflation! So QE isnt something that should be used lightly and only should be used in a time of need not for just creating the wealth effect to hopefully get the economy back rolling which it hasnt exactly done so far.

this is also food for thought a bit on the extreme side though for the last paragraph
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      04-04-2012, 02:16 AM   #801
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Spoken like a true bear Vanity
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      04-04-2012, 02:20 AM   #802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hisam135i View Post
Fun facts about gas prices:
every 10 cent rise in gas prices = 12 billion out of consumer spending
every $10 rise in price of crude oil = -.25% effect on US GDP.


As you stated there are many factors that make me also find it hard to believe that QE3 is going to happen this year; well unless there is a severe hit to the market. The markets are doing fine now, no need for QE yet were close to all time highs! It would be a definite waste in my opinion as well as lead to a rise in the price of pretty much everything (inflation) as you said.

Also, QE is pretty much our last defense from a catastrophe since interest rates are already scraping rock bottom, cant exactly go any lower. Meaning if something, such as the drop in 08, were to happen again our only way to stop it would be to dump money in the economy using QE, which would most likely lead to hyper inflation! So QE isnt something that should be used lightly and only should be used in a time of need not for just creating the wealth effect to hopefully get the economy back rolling which it hasnt exactly done so far.

this is also food for thought a bit on the extreme side though for the last paragraph
Some more fun facts about gasoline price gouging:
-Every $10 increase per barrel of crude oil = an extra 45 cents added per gallon.
- When crude comes back down $10/barrel, only 3 cents are shed off per gallon.

This is why I really question how trigger-happy Bernanke is going to be with QE3. And glad we come to the same conclusions, I myself do believe that QE3 will likely happen after a large decline, rather than before it. The history of QE's shows it is an post-crisis response, not by any means a "preventative" policy.

Bernanke will likely wait several months after a correction in the markets before new liquidity is dumped in, similar to what we always see after a crash. Liquidity comes in after a lot of carnage has occurred. Last year we declined -22% over 3-4 months before Twist came into effect. Makes you wonder, why a -22% decline only warranted Twist (a very ineffective QE policy, relative to others, imo). You have to logically argue whether QE3 would warrant a larger decline (would make sense, as per arguments described above about more "room" for liquidity to come in).

But if you look at 1961, the last time Twist was introduced, it was a policy that went on for many years. In 1965 when Twist came to an end, the markets tanked -25%.

However I don't believe Hyperinflation is a real problem, just yet. Money velocity is steeply declining which indicates this liquidity is not finding itself into the actual economy (as evident by where unemployment stands after a multi-trillion dollar liquidity policy).
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      04-04-2012, 02:23 AM   #803
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Spoken like a true bear Vanity


Even this bear realizes that 70% of the time you need to be a Bull to make money.
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      04-04-2012, 07:41 AM   #804
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
Spoken like a true bear Vanity


Even this bear realizes that 70% of the time you need to be a Bull to make money.
Lol doesn't matter if your a bear or a bull, two keys to success:
1) never fight the trend
2) never fight the fed (or bernanke LOL)
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      04-05-2012, 12:11 PM   #805
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Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens. Even if job numbers are good tomorrow, that means no QE.

Bull markets may climb the wall of worry, but bear declines slide down the slope of hope.
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      04-05-2012, 01:46 PM   #806
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Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens. Even if job numbers are good tomorrow, that means no QE.

Bull markets may climb the wall of worry, but bear declines slide down the slope of hope.
agreed we have been having lots of side ways action since breaking the 1400 barrier. Now that we are back underneath there is some definite resistance whenever re-approaching.
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      04-06-2012, 01:39 PM   #807
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Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens. Even if job numbers are good tomorrow, that means no QE.

Bull markets may climb the wall of worry, but bear declines slide down the slope of hope.
Not sure if anyone took my advice on Thursday to sell. Bulls are going to lose 13,000 on DOW rather brutally on Monday it looks like. Futures are -142. This confirms my recent post 2 weeks ago of a blow off top formation.

I believe now we will be declining from here on out to exaggerate enough pain out of the markets for more liquidity injections. -22% for $400 Billion Twist. Any ideas for how much of a decline is needed to release $1T USD, especially now that unemployment has dropped to 8.2%
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      04-10-2012, 01:43 PM   #808
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Not sure if anyone took my advice on Thursday to sell. Bulls are going to lose 13,000 on DOW rather brutally on Monday it looks like. Futures are -142. This confirms my recent post 2 weeks ago of a blow off top formation.

I believe now we will be declining from here on out to exaggerate enough pain out of the markets for more liquidity injections. -22% for $400 Billion Twist. Any ideas for how much of a decline is needed to release $1T USD, especially now that unemployment has dropped to 8.2%
Did anyone sell on Thursday? I've been calling a blow-off top formation since March 16 on here. Spx futures hit a high of 1430, we are now 1370. DOW has lost 13,000 and broken through its 50 day moving average. I hope everyone realizes that because this rally had been so extended, there is no support for the Dow until the 200 dma. Sell high, buy low. That's the motto.

Edit: for all the bill advocates on CNBC saying he correction will only be 5-7% and that you should continue buying the dip, you'd be foolish. This decline now will be about "how much of a decline" is needed to get that $1 Trillion QE3. Without that, no one in this market has any reason to be pure-bullish, IMHO. I remain my April - September timeframe for the development of a large decline this year. We will go up, that is certain. But the trend is slowly not being your friend anymore.

For sure we will get a correction upwards after a 5 day sell off. How far we correct upwards, nobody knows, not even me. but my model is predicting a large decline.

Trade accordingly. Always do your own research too.
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      04-12-2012, 10:54 PM   #809
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One more leg up and down we go. Unless we create a new high. Just my .02
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      04-13-2012, 02:24 AM   #810
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One more leg up and down we go. Unless we create a new high. Just my .02
+1 this year is looking very similar to last
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      04-15-2012, 01:37 PM   #811
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TVIX made some good money for me
Bought 1000 shares at 8.15

Any other stocks worth buying tomorrow?
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      04-17-2012, 01:09 AM   #812
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does anyone like aapl? rsi is way oversold right now
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      04-17-2012, 06:12 AM   #813
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does anyone like aapl? rsi is way oversold right now
I wouldn't say it's way-oversold atm, but an RSI of 43 definitely has neutralized the stock for the time being. It's not a terribly "bad-buy" for the short-term, if what you're asking is if it's likely to correct upwards. I believe it will. However, I don't know how much return you'd be likely to squeeze out of that stock at $600. Maybe 10%?
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      04-17-2012, 12:21 PM   #814
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Quote:
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does anyone like aapl? rsi is way oversold right now
I wouldn't say it's way-oversold atm, but an RSI of 43 definitely has neutralized the stock for the time being. It's not a terribly "bad-buy" for the short-term, if what you're asking is if it's likely to correct upwards. I believe it will. However, I don't know how much return you'd be likely to squeeze out of that stock at $600. Maybe 10%?
Agreed a stock has to move a lot at that price level cant really expect much
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