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Originally Posted by mact3333
1. Swapped out my kids 529 accounts into cash today, are we at THE top right now, probably not, but trying to catch the last 10% of the rally is for suckers...imho....when it goes, it will go fast and before most realize what is happening...while many will expect a selloff, they will expect usual 10-20% correction but it will go beyond that...when mom/pop panic, thats when you must commit for the long term again to maximize your returns.
2. If you trade oil base on inventory, you will lose...oil is traded in USD and money supply reigns supreme here...oil has been hammered not due to inventories, but because everyone knows interest rates are going to go up leading to a contraction of the money supply, hence the dollar has been strong ...US dollar goes up, commodities must come down.
3. I told you guys 3 years ago we were going to make new all time highs and we were going to rally for a long time...not sure many believed me at the time...now we are getting really close to that top...too early to short now but no need to be aggressively long either....prudent to be cautious now....Bernanke and Yellen have always made it clear what to do...most things can be explained by the expansion/contraction of the money supply and how humans respond to this.
All JMHO of course.
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I think no one has quite understood oil yet, however I have some close friends who are playing oil based on inventory, as well as other factors. They are shorting oil (holding for as little as a couple of hours to holding for an entire day) and have been quite successful.
I would join the bandwagon, but am honestly just too busy at work to play that game.