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It's a forecast, and not a very accurate one.
You need to have a residual (balloon) that is reasonable in the market in five years time, bearing in mind that if you are buying new, and trading in, you'll be offered the wholesale valuation at best --- unless you are leaving a lot of money on the table in bargaining for your new car.
Over the last five years, the used car market in Australia has changed dramatically -- especially for Euro cars, largely because year-on-year, new car prices have dropped as our exchange rate appreciated. This is especially acute right now, and is further affected by competition especially in the M135i sector (A series, new S3, new GTI, Golf R, Scirocco etc).
In the face of that, I think you'd have to take a pretty deep breath and cross all fingers, toes, legs, eyes....if you think the M135i will have a market value of 50% of the current buying price. Far better to work out finance with a much lower (more realistic) residual, which -- as I said -- would be 30% max.
Alternatively, you can look at BMW's Full Circle offering, which guarantees a buyback value, but doesn't leave you with any equity (unless you are very lucky)
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